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民航客运需求弹性实证研究

赵晓松1,2,朱金福1,陆宏兰3,周涠3   

  1. (1.南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京210016;2.厦门航空公司,厦门361000;3.中国南方航空股份有限公司市场部,广州510406)
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-02 修回日期:2018-02-05 出版日期:2018-04-25 发布日期:2018-05-02
  • 作者简介:赵晓松(1963—),男,黑龙江鹤岗人,高级工程师,博士研究生,研究方向为交通运输规划与管理.
  • 基金资助:
    民航科技创新引导资金项目(MHRD20140307)

Empirical study on demand elasticity of passenger transport

ZHAO Xiaosong1,2, ZHU Jinfu1, LU Honglan3, ZHOU Wei3   

  1. (1. College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China;2. Xiamen Airlines, Xiamen 361000, Fujian, China; 3. China Southern Airlines, Guangzhou 510406, China)
  • Received:2018-01-02 Revised:2018-02-05 Online:2018-04-25 Published:2018-05-02

摘要: 从航空公司运营角度分析影响航空市场需求的可能因素,利用多元回归方程建立旅客需求函数,对实际运行数据进行分析,确立最终影响市场需求的因素,主要有价格、销售渠道、飞行年份、飞行日星期及提前售票时间。在此基础上,考虑不同性质航线差异和航空公司竞争,分析旅客需求函数中各影响因素对需求的影响,重点分析客运机票价格对市场需求的影响。研究表明,模型拟合效果较好,各因素对市场需求的影响与事实常理相符,对航空公司票价制定提供决策参考。

关键词: 民航运输, 市场需求, 需求价格弹性, 需求函数

Abstract: Possible factors of aviation market demand is analyzed from the perspective of airline operations, meanwhile,multiple regression equation is employed to establish the passenger demand function. Through analysis of actual operational data, direct factors of market demand are confirmed including ticket price, sales channel, flight year,flight date and advanced selling time. On this basis, considering the difference among various kinds of routes as well as the competition between airlines, the impact of the above factors on passengers'demand is analyzed,especially the impact of passenger ticket prices on market demand. Empirical research shows that the model fitting effect is good, and the factors'influence on market demand is consistent with facts and common sense,providing quantitative decision-making reference for airline fare formulation.

Key words: civil aviation transport, market demand, price elasticity, demand function

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