关键词: 民航货运量, 预测, 规则集, 粗糙集理论

Abstract:

Rough set theory is adopted to find a rule set for air freight volume prediction. Based on the prediction, the tendency of Chinese air freight volume is identified, which is important reference to allocate resources of air freight industry. The prediction procedure that combines rough set theory and the requirement of air freight volume prediction is provided. Concerning statistical data from 1978 to 2014, grey correlation analysis is used to increase the number of samples. The rule set for air freight volume prediction is attained after a series of executions involving decision table construction, completion, discretization, reduction, rule acquirement, and so on. Considering the main characteristics of Chinese economy and society during the 13th-five-year-plan period, it is predicted that the annual growth rate of air freight volume is 5%~10%.

Key words: air freight volume, prediction, rule set, rough set theory