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应急电源系统平均寿命Bayes估计方法研究

赵权,葛红娟,张璐,林怡   

  1. (南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京211106)
  • 收稿日期:2016-05-20 修回日期:2016-07-06 出版日期:2017-06-15 发布日期:2017-07-11
  • 作者简介:赵权(1992—),男,湖北随州人,硕士研究生,研究方向为适航技术与管理.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(71401073);南京航空航天大学研究生创新基地(实验室)开放基金(kfjj20160701)

Bayesian estimation for mean life of emergency power system

ZHAO Quan, GE Hongjuan, ZHANG Lu, LIN Yi   

  1. (College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China)
  • Received:2016-05-20 Revised:2016-07-06 Online:2017-06-15 Published:2017-07-11

摘要:

提出了一种元器件应力分析和综合E-Bayes 理论相结合的平均寿命预估方法,该方法基于定时截尾试验获取的无失效数据,利用元器件应力研究结果作为失效数据输入量,使得综合E-Bayes两个输入相互解耦,解决了失效数据对无失效数据的直接依赖以及与产品性能关联性弱的问题。本研究将该方法用于C919 飞机应急电源系统,推导了系统平均寿命的Bayes 预计模型,同时将预估结果与传统综合E-Bayes 法进行比较。分析表明,使用本研究提出的综合E-Bayes 算法得到的系统平均寿命预估值极差范围更小,对参数选择的稳健性更好。

关键词: 平均寿命, 综合E-Bayes, 元器件应力分析, 定时截尾试验, 稳健性

Abstract:

A tool combining with components stress analysis and synthetic E-Bayes theory is proposed to deal with the mean life of complex aeronautical electronics with the intention to handle the nondecoupling for the inputs of traditional synthetic E-Bayes. It is done with the truncation time of terminated testing as zero-failure data and the result of the components stress analysis as the failure data which is aimed to solve the direct dependence on zero-failure data and little relationship with practical performance for failure data. The computational formula of the mean life is deduced when the tool is used in the emergency power system of C919 airplane. To research the robustness, this tool is compared with the traditional synthetic expected Bayesian. As a result, the foregoing shows a better robustness.

Key words: mean life, synthetic E-Bayes, component stress analysis, terminated testing, robustness

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